![]() Very few teams would reasonably stand a chance to keep Matthews, Marner and Co. ![]() Outside of the goaltending, Cirelli could end up being the most important factor in this series, as he has the ability to slow down Toronto’s vaunted top line. While Matthews, Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Michael Bunting (who is questionable for Game 1 and beyond) give Toronto an embarrassment of riches up front, those five players will see a ton of Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak over the course of this series. The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs fight in the third period during a game at Amalie Arena on ApGetty Images And while it’s unlikely that the Lightning keep Matthews and Marner off the scoresheet entirely, they do have the horses needed to make life tough on Toronto’s best players. Auston Matthews is the Hart Trophy favorite and Mitchell Marner just posted a 97-point season in 72 games, but none of that will matter if Toronto’s dynamic duo goes quiet in another playoff series. And a lot of that handicapping boils down to this: How much stock should we put into Tampa’s pedestrian stretch at a point of the season where they were likely just waiting for the playoffs to start?īecause from a matchup perspective, Tampa is one of the few teams in the NHL that can feel confident in their ability to match up with Toronto.Ī lot of Toronto’s success does hinge on how its high-end players perform. So while the numbers will show that Toronto has been the stronger team, this is a series where you’ll need to rely on raw handicapping in addition to what the numbers tell you. Tampa Bay has played a ton of hockey since the NHL returned from its Covid-hiatus nearly 20 months ago, so it’s not all that surprising that the Bolts did seem to pace themselves, especially since they basically had a playoff spot wrapped up in December. Toronto was the stronger 5-on-5 team, they had the better special teams throughout the season and Tampa Bay’s form did wane at times during the stretch run.īut overlook the Lightning at your own risk. There are a lot of reasons to believe in this Leafs core against the Lightning. There are ups and downs for every team across an 82-game season, but the Leafs were one of the circuit’s most consistent clubs in 2021-22. Not only did Toronto finish five points and eight goals ahead of the Bolts in the standings, but the Buds also finished inside the top-5 in terms of goals per game, expected goals rate, high-danger scoring chance percentage, and power-play percentage. No matter how you shake it, the Maple Leafs were a better team than the Lightning this season. And despite the noise surrounding this matchup - the Lightning’s prowess in the playoffs and Toronto’s inability to win a series, no matter the opponent - it’s hard to argue that the Buds aren’t deserving favorites in this matchup. The two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning will begin the postseason as a slight underdog against the Toronto Maple Leafs. ![]() Get the free Action Network app for expert picks, live odds, bet tracking and more. ![]()
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